A 60-month experiment exploring whether investors achieve different outcomes when consistently allocating capital to Low Score, Market Norm, and High Score opportunities.

Methodology

Dashboard

Portfolio Snapshot

Project Diary

Support

A simplified overview of the experiment and current portfolio status. Review the latest Monthly report → Monthly reports

The sections below summarize the latest observations from the experiment.

Month 1 (22/09/2026)

1. Portfolio Characteristics

What is it?

A snapshot of how each portfolio is currently constructed.

Portfolio Value is the primary experiment metric, while the remaining characteristics help explain why portfolios may behave differently over time. Return, duration, health, and diversification metrics establish the baseline against which future portfolio evolution will be measured.

The WAVG Allocation Score serves a different purpose. It is a methodology control metric used to monitor score drift and support future reinvestment decisions when a meaningful Low Score, Market Norm, and High Score opportunity spectrum is unavailable.

Why is it important?

Portfolio performance rarely appears out of nowhere. It is often driven by characteristics that existed long before returns became visible.

Understanding these characteristics helps investors look beyond current portfolio value and understand the factors that may influence future outcomes.

Key Takeaways

• Identical starting capital can produce very different portfolio characteristics.
• Interest rate, duration, and diversification do not necessarily move in the same direction.
• A higher Allocation Score does not automatically mean a higher interest rate.
• Diversification may be influenced more by borrower count than investment count.
• Portfolio structure often becomes visible long before meaningful performance differences emerge.

2. Capital Recovery Profile

What is it?

A projection of when capital is expected to become available again based on contractual repayment schedules.

While interest rates describe compensation and duration describes commitment, payment schedules determine when capital actually becomes available again.

Why is it important?

Investors often focus on how much an investment may return.

Capital recovery focuses on when that money becomes available.

Returned capital can be reinvested, redeployed into new opportunities, held as liquidity, or used for personal expenses. The timing of cash flows influences when these options become available, but does not by itself determine whether a portfolio is superior.

Key Takeaways

• Payment schedules determine when capital becomes available, not just how much return is expected.
• Capital returned earlier creates optionality: reinvestment, reallocation, liquidity, or personal use.
• Similar projected returns can produce very different cash recovery timelines.
• The High Score Portfolio is projected to return approximately 69% of projected total cash by the end of 2027 (0.81x invested capital), making a significant portion of the capital available much earlier in the investment cycle.
• The Market Norm Portfolio is projected to generate the highest total contractual cash flow, while returning capital more evenly throughout the full investment period.
• The Low Score Portfolio is projected to return approximately 1.08x invested capital by the end of 2028, although it currently produces the lowest projected total cash return across the portfolios.
• Faster capital recovery and higher total cash generation are not necessarily the same outcome.
• A simple review of repayment schedules may provide valuable insight into future liquidity and investment planning.

This relationship between compensation, commitment, and capital recovery is explored further in the LinkedIn article: Investments Have a Pulse. The Score Portfolio Experiment Somehow Finds It.

3. Capital Commitment Profile

What is it?

A breakdown of how much capital is allocated across different duration ranges.

Unlike average duration, this view shows where capital is actually committed and for how long.

Why is it important?

Two portfolios can exhibit similar average interest rates while exposing investors to very different lock-up periods.

Understanding capital commitment helps investors assess liquidity, flexibility, and future reinvestment potential.

Key Takeaways

• Interest rates describe compensation, but duration describes commitment.
• Investments with similar yields can lock capital for very different periods.
• The High Score Portfolio commits approximately two-thirds of its capital to investments maturing within 12 months. This is reflected in the Capital Recovery Profile, which projects a similar proportion of capital becoming available during the same period.
• The Market Norm Portfolio allocates 50% of capital to investments exceeding 24 months, creating a longer commitment profile, while projected repayments remain relatively balanced throughout the investment lifecycle.
• The Low Score Portfolio commits 75% of capital to investments maturing within 24 months, yet approximately 94% of projected cash flows are expected to become available by the end of 2028.
• Capital commitment and capital recovery are related, but not identical. Repayment structure can influence liquidity just as much as investment duration.
• Duration structure helps explain future cash flow patterns, reinvestment opportunities, and capital recovery profiles.
• Similar interest rates can produce very different cash flow patterns depending on how and when principal is repaid.

4. Platform Contribution to Portfolio Construction

What is it?

A comparison of how investments selected from each platform contribute to the estimated return and duration characteristics of the portfolios.

The purpose is not to evaluate, rank, or recommend platforms. Rather, it is to understand how platform opportunity sets influence portfolio construction.

Why is it important?

Portfolio outcomes are influenced not only by the chosen methodology but also by the opportunities available on each platform.

Understanding these characteristics provides additional context for how otherwise similar portfolios can develop different return and capital recovery profiles.

Key Takeaways

• Portfolio characteristics are shaped by opportunity selection as much as by platform selection.
• Different platforms naturally contribute different combinations of return and duration.
• The same platform can contribute differently to different portfolios depending on the selected opportunity.
• Platform-level averages may hide substantial variation between individual opportunities.
• Understanding where portfolio characteristics originate can help explain future portfolio behaviour.

Month 1 Observation

The Build Phase successfully created portfolios with different characteristics despite identical starting capital. The most significant differences emerged not in projected returns, but in capital recovery profiles and capital commitment structures. The Observe Phase will determine whether these structural differences translate into different long-term outcomes.